Butterfly Effect
October
29, 2016
The
butterfly effect is a common name assigned to Edward Lorenz’s Strange Attractor”
theory in chaos mathematics. The effect
was discovered by Edward Lorenz in 1961 as he was attempting to build a weather
predicting model. To save time doing a
repeat of an earlier experiment, Lorenz left off decimals in his formulas
consisting of mathematical calculations of variables in the weather. In a six-digit number after the decimal point,
he left off the final three numbers.
Lorenz figured that the final three numbers would be mathematically
insignificant. Bottom line was that he
was incorrect. Over time, the small
changes effected an outcome that was totally different than the first
calculation and subsequent prediction that he had made. The point of the matter is that small changes
within an organization can affect large changes over time.
I
began my tenure as the Aviation Safety Officer (ASO) for the Corpus Christi
Army Depot (CCAD) on January 2, 2016. My
goal when I joined CCAD was to not only perform at a high level as the ASO, but
to help induce changes within the organization that would make it better in the
long haul.
The
first opportunity for me to employ tactics to accomplish my overall individual strategy
came during a safety stand-down day in February. A safety stand-down day end most production
and flying activities within Army organizations. After the program was finished, I announced
that the “Winds of Change” (hat tip to the band the Scorpions) were blowing
over CCAD and that the open forum that followed was an opportunity for the
employees to push suggestions for improvements upward to management. Two suggestions from the employees stood
out. The first one regarded the aircraft
work-stands that needed to be repaired.
The second suggestion regarded the outdated laptops that the crew chiefs
and aircraft mechanics were using.
In
the past, when work-stands were deemed unserviceable or outdated, CCAD would
simply purchase new work-stands. There
were (13) such aircraft stands in my flight hangar. Not only were some of them in need of repair,
they were unsuited for use by the employees due to their design. They didn’t fit around the aircraft as they
should have and therefore did not provide the fall protection clearances
required by OSHA and our own safety regulations. I decided to take a different path. I submitted an internal work order for the
stands to be modified and repaired by our own welding shop. Engineers and welders visited our hangar,
took down the specifications and wrote down what repairs were needed. The stands were all repaired, modified, and
returned to service over the next few months.
The total savings for CCAD was over $400,000. If one looked at that dollar amount figure
alone, it would appear to be a successful project. However, with the butterfly effect, the small
changes on the attitude of the workers will produce greater benefits in the
future. Now they believed that CCAD management
cared about their safety and with the quality of the tools that they needed to
do their jobs. Now as a postscript to
this and the next example, CCAD posted a record 4th quarter for
aircraft production this year. I can’t
quantify that success due to this action, but in the theory of chaos theory and
the butterfly effect, it likely had an effect.
The
second part involved a meeting with the IT department at CCAD. During the meeting, I described the problem
of computers crashing, possessing limited capability, and not having enough
memory to effectively do the job in our hangar.
I passionately pleaded for “at least (4) new laptop computers for our
hangar right now”. I emphasized that our
technical data for repair and maintenance on our helicopters was delivered
through our network and that the IT deficiency was hurting production. The IT personnel were impressed. One of them asked me how many laptops that we
utilized in our hangar and I answered that we had a total of (24). Their reply was that they wanted to keep all laptops
on the same lifecycle, so they would give us all (24) laptops immediately! Again, this action is hard to quantify into
specific benefits. It would take
statistical studies to examine the amount of average per day down time, per
computer, and labor cost due to time lost and compare that to the metrics after
the new computers were placed in service.
Additionally, even if the laptops cost CCAD $2k a piece, the investment
of $48,000 has to be measured not only against the productivity matrix, but
against the $400,000 of savings enacted by the work stand modifications. The IT action happened quickly versus the
first example of the aircraft work-stands.
In both examples, the morale and attitude of the mechanics and crew
chiefs significantly improved. Both successful
projects represent small changes that should continue to provide long-term
benefits to CCAD.
The
implications of complexity theory and the butterfly effect are
significant. The goal is to institute
cultural change within the organization from the bottom up, in a traditionally
oligarchy system that traditionally operates from the top down. My own personal efforts have involved
recruiting other personnel within the organization that are open to receiving input
from the employees doing the work and instituting the butterfly effect of small
changes to realize larger changes over time.
John
H2O
